Mario Draghi, another hit: why we ended up under scrutiny

Attilio Barbieri

Burst of rejections about the future perspectives of the Italian system in the new ratings reports communicated yesterday by Moody’s. The rating agency essentially confirmed the views on Italian companies. Worsening prospects, however. The prospects, indeed. The US agency has aligned the judgment on our corporate bonds with that of Italy’s sovereign debt. Move explained with the advancement of the political elections to September 25, after the crisis of the Draghi government that led to the dissolution of the Chambers. A sentence that the Italian Treasury did not share, publicly motivating the dissidence.

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This is not a discount. The actual rating of companies and BTPs remains the same as before. In essence, the outlook has been revised from “stable” to “negative” – ​​and frankly, that’s no small thing – for fourteen banks, nine utilities and a good number of other companies. The link to the fall of the Draghi government has been ruled out. The same people who predicted stocks and spreads peaking at 400 will use the barrage of negative judgments about the future of the Italian system to demonstrate the inevitability of “government by the best.” After-Draghi bitter for business: this could be the title of one of the many pieces in Draghian’s newspapers. It’s a shame (for them) that yesterday the spread between our 10yr BTP and the German Bund closed at 213 basis points. It was at 247 on July 21. Before the government crisis. Moody’s operation affects practically all the big tricolor groups. And it traces the map of the issuing entities of debt securities. Ties. The outlook for fourteen financial institutions was revised from “stable” to “negative”: Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Bper Banca, Banca Carige, Mediocredito Trentino-Alto Adige, Fca Bank, Banca del Mezzogiorno-Mcc, Cassa Centrale Banca, Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen , Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Invitalia, Crédit Agricole Italia, Credito Emiliano and Mediobanca. Opinion on Montepaschi di Siena, Banco Bpm, Banca Sella Holding, Beff Bank and Banca Ifis remained unchanged.

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The Italian Post Office was also involved in the review. Rating confirmed, outlook for worsening revised. From stable to negative. Same fate for Eni and nine public services. For the six-legged dog, the creditworthiness assessment and rating remained unchanged at Baa1, two notches above Italy’s sovereign rating, while the Baa2 rating for all nine utilities was confirmed. These are Acea, Hera, Italgas, Snam, Terna, Cdp Reti, 2i Rete Gas, A2a and Enel, to which is added Endesa Italia, whose rating is Baa1. Power goes off and utilities fail. The situation is different in the insurance sector where Moody’s confirmed the view of the A3 insurance financial strength with stable outlook of Generali and its Italian, French and German subsidiaries. While he confirmed the opinion of UnipolSai, whose outlook, however, changed from stable to negative. A difference -explains the rating agency- that “reflects the concentration of its activities”. Finally, regarding Allianz, A3 confirmed and positive outlook. In practice, the only major Italian company spared from this barrage of pejorative reviews is Generali. According to Moody’s, the ruling on the Lion of Trieste reflects the strong geographical diversification of the group and the continuous improvement of its financial profile. The rating agency also stated that Generali’s rating is positioned above Italy’s sovereign rating, thanks to the company’s ability to react to a possible crisis scenario.

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